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If you are a T-Mobile consumer, here are three things that will happen over time (and yes, the carry-over deal is just a gimmick, as I will explain later). |
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We’ve received word that, in an unusually honest and brave move from a big corporation, Adobe is going to announce that they will officially deprecate Flash in favor of HTML5 for rich Web and mobile experiences. |
A new executive from Adobe is expected to say:
It has been interesting to see how the mobile market unilaterally went the “local-application” way, while the PC market had moved away from it a decade ago. Skype was probably the last new desktop application to be adopted by the masses.
When looking at the future of the mobile market, we can clearly see two big contenders, Apple and Google. While Apple has a definite head start, Google mobile’s strategy and execution has been impressive. In the last couple of years, Google has managed to create an open platform, engage with a wide variety of device manufacturer partners, and promote its own branded device. Although iPhone fans might disagree, it is fair to say that, with the latest Android 2.x generation of devices (i.e., NexusOne), there are fewer and fewer hardware and software differentiators between the two solutions.
Undeniably, Apple, with the iPhone, has revolutionized the mobile market. Apple did what all mobile device manufacturers and service providers have dreamed of and failed to do for so many years, which was to make the phone an Internet device. A decade from now, nobody will argue that Apple was the company that reinvented what a phone could be.
However, the big question is how long the iPhone will stay the leader of the category it created. Will Apple maintain its market leadership against an ever-growing number of mobile device manufacturers and a variety of well-supported, open, modern mobile platforms (i.e. Android, and maybe Windows Mobile)? Most importantly, will Apple succeed at keeping mobile developers under its control?
Apple is undeniably the most proprietary and closed technology company in the software industry. In fact, Apple makes companies like Microsoft and Adobe look like nonprofit open source organizations in comparison.
Apple’s iPhone product and marketplace have been the latest example of Apple’s excessive control. Apple ingeniously controls its iPhone platform at both the production and distribution levels. In practical terms, this means that iPhone developers must have the Apple SDK (which only runs on a Mac computer) to be able to produce an iPhone application (even if developers use other application SDKs, such as PhoneGap). Developers also must get the application approved by Apple in order to distribute it. Microsoft would not have even dared to dream of such a market scheme.
Nevertheless, at its annual event last week, Adobe demonstrated how developers can circumvent iPhone application’s production restrictions by using the upcoming Adobe Flash CS5 to produce native iPhone applications. And while this has little to nothing to do with putting Flash or AIR on the iPhone, it is big news for mobile developers. It will allow any developer on any platform (such as Mac or Windows) to develop iPhone applications.
As of now, Adobe’s solution lacks many of the most interesting iPhone APIs, but it is safe to assume that if Adobe is serious about promoting AS3, its language for native iPhone development, Adobe will provide full iPhone API access in the final release.
At JavaOne, Larry Ellison has made some very encouraging statements about Oracle’s commitments to Java, JavaFX, and the mobile developer market. It is certainly good news that Oracle (i.e., Larry) sees the significance of the Java platform in its integrality. However, there are many misunderstandings about the relationship between Java, JavaFX, and Android that even confuse the new Java owner. Here are some clarifications.
Now that Google is in, the game is on. As I mentioned in my previous post, software is now ruling the mobile industry. As in the PC world, the big contenders are Apple with iPhone, Google with Android, and Microsoft with Windows Mobile.
But the big questions are: which one is better and which one is going to ultimately win?
While it is hard to objectively answer this question, here is my first attempt to create a simple score card. I have created a “4 Ss Scorecard” that I think is quite representative of the mobile market need.
The value chain used to be one of the main differences between the mobile and PC markets. The PC industry was driven by software vendors (i.e., Microsoft, Apple, Oracle), while the mobile industry was controlled by the Telcos and device manufacturers. For a long time, the Telcos even had the power to remove features from devices that they felt caused too much competition with their own service offerings. For example, tethering and other features frequently were disabled on early versions of Windows Mobile devices. Interestingly, iPhones 3G, despite its flying pixels, still does not have tethering nor allows it. I am not sure if it is an iPhone limitation or another example of Telcos control.
BitsAndBuzz.com would not be much of a technology blog if it didn’t blog about the new iPhone.
As have many others, I’ve been relatively impressed by the innovation and popularity of the iPhone. I think Apple CEO Steve Jobs has a unique ability to gauge when and how a specific industry is ready to change (the Apple way). Though he somewhat missed the first PC market, he definitely didn’t miss the Internet music one, and now he is right on track to owning a big part of the next generation mobile market. The latest iPhone 3G phenomenon (product and buzz) is definitely a great example of Steve Job’s pioneering vision, and while most of the features of the iPhone were more or less expected, the total package, including the pricing and the developer platform strategy, is pretty darn impressive.
However, as a business user, I am mostly interested in three main following features, and so far, I can safely see only one out of these three.
Jeremy Chone
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I am not sure if Randall Stephenson, CEO of AT&T, was misinformed, dishonest, or just carried away with his new crusade when 
